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Monday, August 22, 2011

Will Sarah Palin Run?

“The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not.” — Thomas Jefferson

We are constantly bombarded with reports in the media about the status of Sarah Palin. With she enter the presidential race or won’t she? Almost on a daily basis there are reports and comments by pundits on both side of the political spectrum as to Palin’s viability as a presidential candidate. It seems that wherever Palin goes she draws a crowd of passionate supporters and reporters.

The latest example of Palin’s popularity was demonstrated last week during the Iowa Straw Poll when Palin was interviewed by Sean Hannity If you watch the video you can see the passionate support of the crowd standing behind Palin and Hannity. If nothing else Palin can draw a crowd larger than any other Republican hopeful.

Does this mean she is a going to enter the race? According to Karl Rove it does. In an interview on Fox News Saturday Morning Rove said in commenting about her upcoming schedule; it looks more like that of a 'candidate' than a 'celebrity'.

The Washington Examiner highlights that schedule theory. Palin is set to appear in Iowa on September 3rd, serving as the keynote speaker at the Tea Party of America's "Restoring America" event.

"This is her last chance," Rove said on the broadcast. "She either gets in or gets out after this visit next week. I think she gets in."

Rove's forecast comes one day after Palin released a new video highlighting her Iowa travels. Entitled "Iowa Passion," the ex-Vice Presidential candidate profiles Iowans who explain why she is "a normal person just like every one of us."

Regarding the rally, Politico reports:

“Palin is scheduled to keynote a tea party rally near Des Moines that day. And while she said during her last Iowa visit that she’s nearing a decision on a presidential run and doesn’t want to be “perceived as stringing people along,” she continues to milk her indecision for everything it’s worth. She reiterated to Fox News’s Greta Van Susteren at the close of a lengthy interview Thursday night that she’s still contemplating jumping in.

Another report in the Daily Caller states that according to Mark Levine; “I believe Sarah Palin will run for president.”

“Although conservative talker Mark Levin says he has no insider knowledge of Sarah Palin’s 2012 presidential aspirations, he claimed at the top of his Thursday radio show he believes that the former Alaska Governor will be a candidate.

Palin has appeared as a guest on Levin’s show, which is a favorite of many Palin supporters.

“Look, I could be dead wrong,” Levin said. “I have no inside information. But I want to underscore what I’ve been saying, which is I believe Sarah Palin will run for president. Just want to put my marker down because others are starting to do it and I put it down quite some time ago.”

In still another article in National Review Online Robert Costa cites ample evidence that Palin is set to announce her candidacy:

“Political organizer Peter Singleton tells National Review Online that Sarah Palin will likely launch a presidential campaign by the end of September. “I believe that she will run,” he says. “I can’t see her sitting this election out.”

Palin, a former Alaska governor, is scheduled to address a tea-party rally on September 3 in south-central Iowa. Singleton is one of the forces behind the event, working with grassroots groups. “Labor Day will kick off the Republican campaign for the nomination,” he hints. “She is going to make a major, major speech.”

Since late last year, Singleton has crisscrossed the Hawkeye State, connecting a network of supporters at rubber-chicken dinners and Republican picnics. He has huddled with county GOP chairmen, spoken with a number of conservative state lawmakers, and assembled a close-knit team of pro-Palin activists.

All of Singleton’s efforts have been self-directed, with no official involvement from Palin’s political apparatus. Still, he says, “We have not been on a lark. But we are happy, delighted even, to have people think that.”

GOP presidential contenders, from Rick Perry to Mitt Romney, will be in for a shock when Palin makes her entry, he predicts. “When she gets in the race, I would not want to be the other candidates, who have shamelessly whispered to Iowa Republicans for months that she is not running,” he says. “There will probably be some defections.”

Singleton, a 57-year-old former software salesman, says he has already compiled an extensive e-mail list of Iowans ready to join her ranks. With the help of Michelle McCormick, his fellow Organize4Palin state coordinator, “we have laid the groundwork for her,” he says.

Costa continues:

“Singleton points to Palin’s June visit to Pella, Iowa, as an example of how she is ready to make a splash in the run-up to the first-in-the-nation caucuses. Palin spoke at the premiere of The Undefeated, a documentary about her gubernatorial record, then attended a barbeque with attendees in the sleepy Midwestern town. Singleton and McCormick helped the film’s creators reach out to Palin’s Iowa base, drawing a big and boisterous crowd to the downtown square.

Filmmaker Stephen Brannon, who directed The Undefeated, tells NRO that he is amazed at how popular Palin remains in Iowa. Her reception in Pella, he says, was indicative of how a campaign could be received. “There is something happening under the surface here,” he says. “It’s pretty powerful.” Since the premiere, Singleton and Bannon have organized screenings across the state, hoping to generate interest in the governor’s story and her message.

The unofficial, on-the-ground Palin movement in Iowa has been boosted by the governor’s visits to the state this summer. Palin caused another stir earlier this month when she appeared at the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines, greeting families and farmers as scores of reporters and television cameras trailed her. Following the visit, her political team released a video chronicling the spectacle. The clip, which Palin posted on her Facebook page, ends with a message to her Iowa supporters. “Thank you, Iowa!” it reads. “See you again September 3rd.”

In yet another piece in the Daily Caller Alec Jacobs writes:

“Palin is schedule to speak at a Tea Party of America-sponsored event in Iowa on September 3. The event was recently moved to a bigger location to host a larger crowd.

“This is her last chance. She either gets in or gets out. I think she gets in,” Rove said.

A late announcement “always raises questions about whether a candidate has the time to raise money, build an organization and meet voters face-to-face,” the Washington Examiner’s Byron York writes.

But Rove addressed that issue on Fox: “[Palin] thinks the normal rules don’t apply. If you’re Sarah Palin, you just show up and the money comes and the organization comes and the people come.”

York writes about a Fox News appearance in May where Rove said much the same thing. Asked if Palin was right that the rules don’t apply to her, Rove replied then: “Look, politics is changing. My sense is her people don’t think she needs to have county chairmen and organizations and go around and line up people. It’s just going to happen.”

As you can see from all of this chatter from the pundits and media Palin seems to be front and center in the media. There is no denying her ability to draw passionate support from her numerous followers and vicious fire from her detractors. Not since 1964 when Barry Goldwater was running against Nelson Rockefeller for the Republican nomination has the passion and vitriol been so pronounced. It appears that one either loves Palin or hates her, and the left certainly hates her.

In a poll on National Review Online 72% of the respondents said Palin should not run for the presidency. Keep in mind that probably most who those who responded to the poll were conservatives. What their reasons for voting no are unclear and no doubt range from disagreement with her ideology to thinking she cannot defeat Obama.

Dick Morris claims Palin cannot defeat Obama in 2012. He states:

“Three new candidates are slowly circling above the GOP presidential race.  Will they land or fly on by?  New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former VP candidate Sarah Palin, and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan are in various stages of contemplating possible candidacies.
Start with Palin.  A good Iowa source tells me that she is preparing a massive event in his state on September 3rd, very possibly to announce her presidential candidacy.   It would be a huge mistake...but it would help the Republicans defeat Obama!
A mistake because she'd get slaughtered.  Michele Bachmann - more credentialed, accomplished, and informed - has breathed all the oxygen she'd need for her candidacy.  Before she could compete in the primaries, she would need to defeat Bachmann in the "woman's primary."  But the Congressman is vastly better equipped to discuss budget, deficit, foreign affairs, and virtually any other issue.  She has stirred the same kind of enthusiasm as the former Alaska Governor, but with much more substance behind it.  If she ran, it would end up trivializing her and showing feet of clay.”

During World War II Churchill and Stalin constantly urged Roosevelt to launch a cross-channel invasion to liberate Europe. Our military leaders resisted these pleas on grounds that we lacked the resources (especially landing craft), intelligence, and training. Our first attempt at an invasion was in North Africa where our Army suffered badly at Kasserine Pass. What we did, however, gain from that defeat was knowledge of the German Army and experienced NCOs who would begin training recruits in combat tactics. Our next venture into an invasion was Sicily, where we did much better due to better equipment and trained officers and NCOs.

In the meanwhile we were building an arsenal in England. An arsenal of planes, ships, supplies and trained soldiers. When we finally opened the Second Front with the Normandy Invasion our troops were ready. They had the training and resources to defeat the Nazi war machine.

I view Palin’s possible run for the presidency in the same manner. Palin had her North Africa during the 2008 presidential election. She knew little about the enemy (Obama) and her officer corps, especially the overall commander John McCain who was as inept as Major General Fredendall who Eisenhower replaced with George S. Patton. She has yet to have the success Patton had in Sicily.

So where is Palin’s analogous Sicily? I believe it is in Arizona where she should run for the Senate seat of the retiring John Kyl. As an Arizona resident she can make a run at Kyl’s seat and probably win it. McCain will have to support her and the Tea Party certainly will.

Once elected to the Senate she will have the time and experience in Washington D.C. to sharpen her political tactics, polish her message, and establish a national record. She will also begin building up her resources for the ultimate D-Day in 2016 if Obama wins and 2020 if the Republican wins.

Palin is still young (she is only 47-years old) and attractive. Her supporters471px-5.3.10SarahPalinByDavidShankbone will not go away. A senatorial campaign will allow her to modulate her voice, like Margaret Thatcher did, and stay in the national spotlight. No matter what her detractors on the east coast will have to say, it will be the people of Arizona who will make the choice. Once in the Senate she can sit on committees and introduce bills. She can speak with a conservative voice and satisfy the Tea Party.

I am a big fan of Sarah Palin and I do not want her to suffer a Kasserine Pass style defeat at the hands of enemies in the media and the pundits, both right and left. I think Rove is dead wrong when he says this is her last chance. While Rove may be a political expert and campaign strategist he is missing the point with Palin. If she runs and wins the senate seat in Arizona she will not only still have a chance, she will have a very good chance to win the presidency and serve the Republic.

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